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Japanese Economy: Finding a silver lining amid risks

The earthquake caused a tsunami horror certainly caused great loss to Japan. Need more days to see the full damage, but initial assessment indicates this catastrophic consequences similar in Kobe 16 years ($ 100 billion).



Scenes of devastation after the earthquake in Natori, near Sendai Miyagi province, 
the region most severely affected
In the cloud ...
If anyone has the opportunity to return to Kobe 16 years after witnessing the aftermath of the powerful earthquake of 6.8 magnitude occurred May 1/1995, sure can not imagine there is nothing worse than that: Hanshin Expressway and the port of Kobe was completely destroyed, the buildings were razed near, the streets filled with rubble, more than 6,400 people died.This earthquake was also recorded in the Book of World Records as a natural disaster caused the most expensive ever happened in any other country in the world - causing damage 10.000 billion yen ($ 100 billion ), which is equivalent to 2.5% of GDP in Japan.
Immediately after the earthquake in Kobe, Japan stock market has broken leading to the collapse of Barings Bank. Industrial production in the weeks then reduced to 2.5%.
Disaster has happened to Japan was a big shock to this country in particular and the world in general. Lots of things are damaged, from residential to large refinery was on fire, killed some people expected to tens of thousands of people. The trains stopped operating, mobile phones do not get waves in Tokyo. The production facilities in Japan as Honda, Toyota, Sony lost a lot.Initial estimates, the damage of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan occurred last week in the north of the country is similar in Kobe ($ 100 billion). Japanese stock market is also subject to the same effect, and not only in Japan but in all places.
In the energy sector, many refineries to be decommissioned, many risks are threatening the nuclear facility. 
At the time, the quake hit at a time when the national economy are difficult times. In the fourth quarter of 2010, Japan's GDP has declined significantly, and the recovery is expected for the period beginning in 2011. Moreover, the government will have to spend a big amount for overcoming the consequences of the earthquake, while financial situation of the country was overcast with a deficit reaches 9% of GDP, while the government is very much in debt to the disaster and they will have to borrow more to rebuild. Have an opinion on this resilience of the Japanese economy is much weaker than the 1995 Kobe earthquake.
This capability will be much higher if the fear of a Chernobyl-style nuclear disaster became a reality. In water, fear of radioactive leaks caused hundreds of thousands of people to evacuate; lack of power due to a series of nuclear power plants to be closed are likely to affect the lives of nearly 50 million people. Outside, there were dire predictions for the nuclear industry worldwide, with both China and India have announced that they will reconsider plans to build nuclear power plants themselves, and while some demonstrations taking place in Europe against plans to build nuclear reactors in Germany "
Economics of Japan has been for the old and can not keep up development of the international level, in the rankings last year, the Japanese economy fell to 3rd, after the US and China. Now they have to deal with this disaster.Opportunity to revive the economy with government to Prime Minister Naoto Kan?
... To look for a silver lining
Those who know about Kobe or who have more than 20 years of research on culture as well as the Japanese economy, will be able to predict the future is opportunity for the country's economy sunrise.
After the earthquake, Kobe has recovered, and recovered quickly in an unusual way. Production activities of the city is almost back to normal within 15 months, while industrial production in Japan generally does not drop too much: 1/1995 fell 2.6% in December, but then jumped back to 2.2% in February and 1% in March.
Just after the earthquake, the building regulations of Japan has been tightened significantly.
While Kobe is an important port of Japan, Tohuku region, the epicenter of the earthquake Tokyo 11/3 located 250 km northeast of economic roles are much worse. Here are mainly petrochemical plants, electronics and automotive. Production of this region accounts for only 1.7% of Japanese GDP.
No sense of stagnation of production from Japan. Many plants have been affected by the earthquake, but the extent of the damage is not too large.Toyota Motor Corp. has decommissioned three factories in the north, but Toyota said no damage to people. Nissan Group has two production areas were on fire, but was suppressed during the day and yesterday said today, all operations will return to normal. Sony lost a lot, but they also have work again.
At the national level, the situation is much less stressful. An economic expert said, no major traffic routes do damage. Financial operations back to almost normal this morning. Japan's central bank has also scheduled a meeting on Monday, 14/3, to discuss monetary policy.
The Japanese government is very much in debt and with this disaster, they will have to borrow more to rebuild. But look on the other hand, this is not a bad thing because when rebuilding, they will start with the modern scientific equipment, as well as most people will have to eat, work and time to back to life before the disaster will be shortened.
Japanese politics are some difficulties, but Japan is a big country, with particular importance in the world economy, now it is important to orient them how to rebuild Japan a strong intensity. This is just a small step backwards and if the program of rebuilding the right way, then within 3 to 6 months, will have a stronger Japan before the earthquake happened a lot.

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