It is the opinion of the TS. Le Duy Hieu (Vietnam Economic Institute) by the news that China could overtake the US to become the number one economy in the world.
Sir, according to the latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), China has surpassed the US to become the largest economy in the world. He has seen how this issue?
The speculation that China's economy surpassed the US to become the largest economy in the world is not the first time that it has happened almost ten years now. However, during the last decade, these signs to show that China's economy surpassed the United States, it is still very vague.
As a general rule, any development does come a time when it will move into recession. Therefore, China's economy will not continue to operate smoothly with speed on the average growth of over 10% as before. Evidence that the current economic growth rate of only 7.7% in China and it is likely to fall further.
The growth rate decreased itself synonymous with the Chinese economy is also problematic. Moreover, foreign policy, the expansion of the East Sea of China leads to almost isolated before world opinion. This part makes the status of foreign investments into the country's economy has been declining. Even with state withdrawal, which recently massively Japanese withdrawal from China is a proof.
He looked at what point of the two economies to make sure such a statement?
An important point here is that China still relies on state enterprises to promote growth, promote exports ... As we can see, all State-owned enterprises in the world are suffering from a disease that is inherent inefficient disease. Therefore, China's economy will soon be paying for something based on this state enterprises.
As I predicted, the Chinese economy thing wrong in the financial crisis is the story of the 2016, 2017, not far away anymore.
As for the US, today, the US remains the largest economy, accounting for about one third of total world GDP. The economy is growing economy based on high technology, based on high-quality labor and new technologies. In particular, the US economy in the post-industrial stage for a long time, now move on to the period of technologies and services, so this growth sustainable nature.
Although the growth rate of the US low, but remember that US growth and the nature of its sustainability. The United States has a market institutions are innovative and modern. This ensures that the economy operates very smoothly.
Moreover, the United States market economy from a long tradition. As the market economy, China began after the renovation only. With a market economy so it accumulated a team with strong people skills, be placed in the division of labor is carried te.Tuc make the talent of the country are located corresponds to the position. Therefore, so the entire bureaucracy and even in the state sector is operated relatively smoothly and efficiently. This point than that of China.
Vietnam has many opportunities to get rid of the dependence on the Chinese economy.
So, said China's economy likely surpass the US is not perfect?
If the terms of economies of scale, ie the total gross domestic product, China may gradually approaching the US. But if say China's economy may surpass the US in the future, then it's quite a myth.
In terms of per capita income, in China still lags far behind the United States.Economies of scale ranked by two means, it is not merely through the entire GDP. China is a populous country like that, if combined GDP would be great of course.
Supporting that China's economy overtook the US to head up, they have implications for the economy what Vietnam did not, sir?
Vietnam's economy traditionally depend heavily on China, which is generally dependent on foreign economies, no independence. But China's own dependence on it in nature and tradition that has lasted for generations. To date, 90% of consumers in Vietnam still uses the Chinese restaurant.
Of course, the market economy is not something that would benefit without harm, and vice versa. But for the relationship with China, we do more harm than good.So, get rid of this relationship, it would be better for Vietnam.
If you get rid of dependence on China's economy, leading to the establishment of relations with countries with economies more civilized, technologically more advanced, then it is a good thing for Vietnam.
During the period, Vietnam exported to the super markets such as Europe, America, Japan about $ 12 billion / year. But the surplus is how much is just to offset the trade deficit with China.
It should be noted that, if as long as we still trade deficit with China, we are lost and losses.
According to Phan Thuy / Messenger